Rambling on about this weeks news…

    The Fed has certainly let us know what they think about the economy. It sucks ass! Some things are a bother though to me. Have they forgotten inflation? Are they just trying to placate the market? These cuts are going to be inflationary for sure….

      My doubts are still intact for the stimulus plan. First, if they agree on it anytime soon I will be greatly surprised. If they do manage to hammer out agreements I am betting most are going to pay down debt instead of running out and buy something. I am not quite sure how that would help anything.

     Gold and silver continue to rise..1000 bucks this month. Some are beginning to call it a gold bubble I don’t believe it. I don’t buy the physical gold myself. The way to do it is to buy ETFs such as GLD…..Kevin

Another Rate Cut?

    With new home sales down over 26% we are looking for another cut by the Fed. But how will it be received by the markets? Damn, its hard to say. Too little and we will see a sell off and if the cut is percieved to be too big you will see a sell off, with investors thinking that the economy is in worse shape than they thought. Kevin

Stimulas Package, Rebates

    I am betting our Congressman will never agree on some of the fine points to get this thing out in any kind of time. Its my understanding that now several are trying to put their “add ons” to the bill and other perks, trying to slip them in. What is going to happen, its just going to slow the whole thing down, if not derail it completely. I have my doubts about them pulling this off.

    Another issue, I am seeing, is that this will hit the Treasury Department at the worst possible time, if they do get it out……right at tax time. Will there be checks or will those of us that have their tax refunds direct deposited, have them direct deposited?

     I will be mightily surprised if they get this thing going and out before the damn recession is over……Kevin

Food Prices

     I did a bit of research on basic food staples and the percentage increases were quite astonishing. Milk is up some 30% in the past year, costing around 4.50 per gallon in our area.. Eggs are up 38% in the past year, pricing at around 1.90 or so and a loaf of bread, 24 ounce, is up around 12% for a price of 2.50 or so.

    Now the figures released by the government  in November say this equates to slightly over 5% for the seasonally adjusted annual rate and around 2.5% for all of 06. Of course, those of us living in the real world know that this does not seem correct. Its got to be more than that.

     Myself, I have had to make some serious adjustments in my shopping habits. The last few months I have had to start shopping by price. I have always been a brand loyal sorta guy but I have had to toss that out the window.  I have had to drastically reduce the beef I have purchased and have gone with the much cheaper pork steaks. I have had to forego the brand names and go with the private label stuff, some of which the quality is noticeably lower and some of which is just as good. You just have to buy and try.

                                                     Kevin

The Fed

   I just don’t know what to think about these guys(and a few girls), especially Bernanke, the Fed chairman. First this genius, tells us early last year that the subprime debacle(pre-debacle at that time)was well contained and would not spill over into other areas. Well, duh, look what happened Big Boy. Now, they are telling us that inflation is going to be tame in the coming year BUT…..growth is going to be at a measly 1.5% annually, which in turn will put a halt to job growth. Seems, we need 2.5% growth to keep the jobs coming. Do we believe anything they say?

     I know this is an extremely difficult position but I fear political pressures keep them from being forthright. Really, before they start talking recession, it is usually about over. The numbers we have been getting the past several months come no where close to matching the reality here at home.

  I miss Greenspan…..Kevin

Recession coming? Hell no! Its here…..

    Surely my dumbass wasn’t the only person in America that saw all this coming. Discussions among myself and friends over the last few months have almost exclusively been on food and energy prices, mortgages and credit card debt and just trying to make it. Ordinarily, topics of conversation were who’s doing who…fishing and hunting and work….good ol Central Mississippi topics,but with so many in our area struggling, conversation has changed to the more serious and somber topic of just getting by.

   I had started paying closer attention a year ago after reading the government’s CPI numbers. Surely they jest, I thought. Inflation at less than 3%? Where the hell are they living? Then I noticed the fine print. “Excluding food and energy”. WTF!!!! was my immediate reaction. What the hell else matters to those of us living down here in the real world? 

    The first thing I had noticed, of course, was gasoline prices. Then it was groceries. According to Business Week, basic food staples, such as milk, eggs and bread were up 20% in the past year. Then I started paying attention to all this shit that was being automatically drafted from my checking account like INSURANCES! Homeowners up 10% in a year. Automobile insurance up about the same. Damn health insurance up 20% . Funny thing was my income was staying about the same. Well, really that ain’t a funny thing.

    We aren’t about to be in a recession. We are in one. But, with a lot of us down here, recession is about to turn into depression! Kevin